Webb1-Page Summary 1-Page Book Summary of Superforecasting. Superforecasting is the result of decades of research on “superforecasters”: people who can predict future events with an accuracy better than chance. Superforecasters are intelligent, but more importantly, they’re open-minded, deeply curious, and adept at sidestepping their own cognitive biases. WebbThey are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to ...
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Webb5 juli 2016 · Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. By Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner DOI: CC BY 4.0 Authors: Daniel Buncic Abstract and Figures Let me say from the outset that this is an... Webb27 nov. 2005 · If a prediction needs two independent things to happen in order for it to be true, its probability is the product of the probability of each of the things it depends on. If there is a... how many calories in a small laffy taffy
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Webb21 apr. 2024 · Suns vs 76ers Prediction. Both teams' defenses have been stellar this year, so a low-scoring affair could ensue. The Phoenix Suns have an advantage going into this game, ... Webb23 jan. 2024 · The San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles play on Sunday, Jan. 29 in the NFC Championship Game. Which team will win the game? Check out these NFL playoffs picks and predictions for the... Webb› O u0027s vs blue jays - Phillies vs Blue Jays Picks and Predictions Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Odds, Line, Pick Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: Betting … how many calories in a small iced capp